Anthropogenic Climate Change and Weather Variability

B22719 / Sat, 7 Apr 2007 08:06:56 / Environment

What we see is what we get.

Predictions and long term trends be “dammed.”

Anthropogenic increases in water vapor from agriculture and agricultural irrigation are the primary anthropogenic influence on the climate, not increased atmospheric CO2. Here’s the catch.

Unlike atmospheric CO2, water vapor has a relatively short residence time in the troposphere. About 9 days is the mean global average I’m told.

The impact of anthropogenic water then has to constantly be replenished and to become a major regional and then global player in the much larger scheme of global warming it must pass along these regional impacts along to the oceans to equalize the alteration in total energy dispersion.

So what all this really means is that our primary impact isn’t the relative constant forcing one would expect as with the steady incremental increase of atmospheric CO2 but is instead widely variable according to the El Nino or and the seasons of the year, as agricultural impacts of course vary in accordance with the stage of the growing season.

After a record warm winter in the Northern Hemisphere and record increased water vapor into the atmosphere by virtue of a major warming feedback of billions of additional cubic meters of water vapor evaporated from the Great Lakes due to the near total lack of ice cover and fueled by the additional heat stored from a record warm summer, we are now having the most severe winter weather of the season.

In April.

The snow pack had all but completely melted, with the exception being areas within the heavy woods where the cover from the wind and thermal mass of the forest itself impedes the process of direct condensation of latent heat from the warm moist southerly winds that literally eat the snow and of course where it had been plowed up into piles during the winter.

On April 1st there were flowers shooting up along the front of my house, where today April 7th, the wind has scoured the ground bare and it is frozen solid and the snow that has accumulated over the past several days has drifted in places two to three feet.

So now that winter has dispensed with both the additional water vapor and the residual heat of last years impact and prior to the anthropogenic water vapor machine kicking into high gear for the 2007 growing season; a late season cold air mass from Canada has swept down from the Arctic across the region and we are getting the same kind of weather one would expect to see in late November in years long past, though the daylight hours are skewed by the true season.

Don’t usually see a lot of lake effect snow in April.

The big lake would have normally been covered with ice for miles offshore in years past.

Instead of washing and waxing our cars for the first time each spring in preparation for Easter Sunday, we will instead be shoveling our walks and plowing our drives. School was called off Wednesday, Thursday and Good Friday was already scheduled as an off day so there was no need for another “snow day” in April.

Climate change doesn’t mean steadily increasing or decreasing average temperatures. And of course this isn’t climate, this is weather.

Extreme weather.

STRONG WINDS AND HIGH WAVES CONTINUE TO BATTER THE LAKESHORE FROM MARQUETTE EAST TO TWO HEART…

MARQUETTE-ALGER-LUCE- 931 PM EDT FRI APR 6 2007 NORTH WINDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH WILL CONTINUE ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN HIGH WAVES OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR…WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 15 TO 20 FEET FROM MARQUETTE EAST TO TWO HEART OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL FALL BELOW 15 FEET BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH LAKE SUPERIOR WATER LEVELS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL…THE LONG PERIOD OF POUNDING WAVES AGAINST THE EXPOSED SHORELINE WILL CAUSE MINOR BEACH EROSION AND LAKESHORE FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS.

USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE THROUGH SATURDAY. DO NOT VENTURE NEAR BREAKWALLS OR OTHER STRUCTURES ALONG THE SHORELINE…AND DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. PLEASE RELAY ANY OBSERVED FLOODING OR BEACH EROSION TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MARQUETTE.

National Weather Service – Saturday, April 07, 2007 4:45 AM Local Time
Winter storm warning.

LATE SEASON WINTER STORM WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT…

.AS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA DRIFTS EAST AND SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ARRIVES…OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT. IN ADDITION…GUSTY NORTH WINDS WHICH HAVE BEEN CAUSING CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AT TIMES WILL ALSO SUBSIDE…ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.

ALGER-NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…MUNISING…SENEY 445 AM EDT SAT APR 7 2007 …WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY…

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS…HEAVY AT TIMES…WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW TODAY WITH MUCH OF THAT ACCUMULATION OCCURRING THIS MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL WEST OF GRAND MARAIS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW…REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. ALTHOUGH SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT…AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO LOCALLY 4 INCHES OF SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE.

IF YOU MUST TRAVEL…SLOW DOWN AND BE ALERT FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD CONDITIONS AND VISIBILITIES. ROADS WHICH HAVE NOT BEEN PLOWED RECENTLY MAY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW COVER OR MAY HAVE NUMEROUS DRIFTS ACROSS THEM.

Strange weather for the first week of April.

April Fools?

Sometimes no Peace

terrible bad average good great

3 Responses to Anthropogenic Climate Change and Weather Variability

  1. gwhunta says:

    Science 19 March 1982:
    Vol. 215. no. 4539, pp. 1498 – 1501
    DOI: 10.1126/science.215.4539.1498
    Influence of Land-Surface Evapotranspiration on the Earth’s Climate
    J. SHUKLA 1 and Y. MINTZ 2

    1 Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland 20771
    2 Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, and Department of Meteorology, University of Maryland, College Park 20771

    Calculations with a numerical model of the atmosphere show that the global fields of rainfall, temperature, and motion strongly depend on the land-surface evapotranspiration. This confirms the long-held idea that the surface vegetation, which produces the evapotranspiration, is an important factor in the earth’s climate.

    Submitted on December 2, 1981

    Snark,
    Could you get the full article in PDF for me.

    I’m not a paid subscriber. And this factor didn’t get much attention or explanation in your article.
    Peace,

    GWHunta @ 03/08/07 22:57:25

  2. gwhunta says:

    THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN CITED BY OTHER ARTICLES:

    Regions of Strong Coupling Between Soil Moisture and Precipitation.
    R. D. Koster, P. A. Dirmeyer, Z. Guo, G. Bonan, E. Chan, P. Cox, C. T. Gordon, S. Kanae, E. Kowalczyk, D. Lawrence, et al. (2004)
    Science 305, 1138-1140
    | Abstract » | Full Text » | PDF »

    Enhancement of Interdecadal Climate Variability in the Sahel by Vegetation Interaction.
    N. Zeng, J. D. Neelin, K. Lau, and C. J. Tucker (1999)
    Science 286, 1537-1540
    | Abstract » | Full Text »

    Tropical deforestation and climate change.
    K. L. O’Brien and K. L. O’Brien (1996)
    Progress in Physical Geography 20, 311-335
    | Abstract » | PDF »

    Ecology and Climate: Research Strategies and Implications.
    T. L. Root and S. H. Schneider (1995)
    Science 269, 334-341
    | Abstract » | PDF »

    Amazon Deforestation and Climate Change.
    J. Shukla, J. Shukla, C. Nobre, and P. Sellers (1990)
    Science 247, 1322-1325
    | Abstract » | PDF »

    Origins of the 1988 North American Drought.
    K. E. Trenberth, K. E. Trenberth, G. W. Branstator, and P. A. Arkin (1988)
    Science 242, 1640-1645
    | Abstract » | PDF »

    The causes of drought with particular reference to the Sahel.
    J. G. Lockwood (1986)
    Progress in Physical Geography 10, 111-119
    | PDF »

    The influence of vegetation on the Earth’s climate.
    J.G. Lockwood (1983)
    Progress in Physical Geography 7, 81-89
    | PDF »

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