As a primer for understanding this issue I recommend the following link:
After reading it I ask that you consider the following scenario and chain of plausible events resulting from an attack against Tehran, that if not prevented, could plunge humanity into WWIII.
The currently hemorrhaging Bush administration maintains its control of the White House and avoids articles of impeachment for its crimes against the American people.
The status quo is preserved for the American people by virtue of media misinformation and general public apathy.
The Iranian nuclear issue has been on simmer throughout the midterm election season and the talk of “preventative” strikes have been quieted by political necessity. November 7th and our “Election Day” comes and goes. The Democrats gain seats and now control the House and the Senate is again evenly split.
The Bush initiatives have no real chance of gaining any traction and there is little for soon to be “lame duck” president to do but try to maintain his prestige in his central role as Commander in Chief.
As soon as the votes are counted and the returns are in, the war drums again come alive regarding Iran and their potential to acquire nuclear weaponry and the focus sharpens on their possession of the means to deliver them.
Most Americans remain oblivious, concerned basically with the NFL, the upcoming Thanksgiving weekend and beginning the holiday shopping season.
In January the unthinkable becomes reality.
The Israelis launch pre-emptive air assaults against Iranian nuclear facilities, the first strikes coming from submarine launched cruise missiles from Israeli submarines operating in the Persian Gulf. These intial attacks are followed with F-15I’s based from Israel proper overflying the Gulf and eastern Iraq enroute to their targets in Iran.
The Iranians respond with ballistic missile strikes on Oman from which the Israeli navy bases its subs and move to block shipping in the Straits of Hormuz.
The U.S. Navy is called upon to begin immediate offensive operations against Tehran’s ballistic missile installations and to protect shipping ……..ad infinitum.
Our troops in Iraq already under siege now have a full scale civil war as the Sunnis band together for total dominance in Iraq and our naval and air forces are battling the Iranian Revolutionary Guard to regain control of the Persian Gulf.
Oil tankers are targeted and destroyed like sitting ducks. The Straits of Hormuz is completely closed to shipping, civilian or military.
The long held belief that the U.S. navy was invincible has proven false as missile and torpedo strikes are the cause of heavy damage on the aircraft carriers and support craft are lost.
Israel proper has been able to defend itself with their Arrow Ballistic Missile Defense System, but the Palestinians living in the West Bank haven’t fared as well and have suffered extensive collateral damage from intercepted misslile warheads falling short and the escalating level of violence by the occupying forces.
Mass casualties result in the Palestinian controlled areas from major IDF incursions to prevent both organized attacks from Palestinian militants and halting a general mass exodus from behind the Israeli apartheid wall as Palestinian civilians try to flee the West Bank for safety.
The Arab street in previously “moderate” neighboring nations is outraged and violent protest is rampant in all the major cities throughout the region.
The Iranians are pounded from the air by the American air force and navy as well as the IAF, but no nuclear weapons have yet been used with the possible exception of nuclear tipped “bunker busters” in the initial attacks against the deep and hardened underground targets.
No admission regarding the use of these weapons has been made, but international tensions are high as claims of their being used by the Israelis are made by both the Russians and the Chinese in the UN Security Council.
Demands are made for an immediate ceasefire and cessation of hostilities in the Persian Gulf by all parties.
Sensing they are about to lose the last of their strategic ballistic missiles to the onslaught from the air and enraged that some of these air strikes are being launched against them from American air bases in Saudi Arabia, the Iranians launch their remaining long range ballistic missiles in a coordinated attack on Saudi oil production facilities and crude oil loading infrastructures.
Additionally they begin a rapid escalation of shorter range missile attacks against American bases inside Iraq. American troops already under siege and now having difficulty replenishing supplies because of the shutdown in shipping.
The resulting damage from the strategic attacks cuts Saudi oil output from 10.5 million barrels a day to 5 overnight. The ensuing chaos inside Saudi Arabia unleashes a wave of violence against soft targets inside the Saudi kingdom by Al-Qaeda sleeper cells, primarily targeting Western oil workers providing the technical expertise that will be needed to repair and replace the heavily damaged Saudi infrastructure. Most flee the kingdom out of fear for their personal safety.
World crude prices skyrocket beyond $200.00 a barrel and the UN Security Council conducts emergency meetings in an attempt to demand an immediate cessation of hostilities as the world’s economies go into complete chaos from the combined effects of the extreme oil and commodity prices and now critical shortages of fuel worldwide.
The U.S. uses its veto power in the Security Council and resolves to pursue total and unconditional surrender from the Iranian regime, as the U.S. begins a draw down of the strategic petroleum reserves to stem domestic shortages.
Emergency implementation of both price freezes on fuel at the pump and a motor fuel rationing program is initiated.
As winter tightens its grip across the northern hemisphere the realities of a world that will now be many months and possibly years without a sufficient supply of energy and the wider realizations of the ramifications of this man made crisis begin to set in.
The almost 900 million people that were formerly deficient of enough food to provide their dietary needs are now starving en masse. Another 2 billion are now at risk of starvation as food distribution systems begin to break down due to the lack of fuel.
As shortages of both fuel and food sweep across Pakistan the ruling military regime is overthrown by Muslim extremists following mass defections in the Pakistani military.
The U.S. is forced to insert Special Forces and regular army airborne to maintain control of the Pakistani nuclear arsenal and the War in the Greater Middle East has yet another front.
In what becomes some of the coldest and most calculating decision making in human history, it is decided that all grain exports from North America are to be indefinitely suspended.
This action is deemed necessary due to rising uncertainties regarding the availability of sufficient fuel to insure the upcoming planting season and the high probability of a precipitous shortfall in the 2007 grain harvest. Taking these actions now will help to insure adequate grain reserves through the winter of 2007-2008, as food as well as fuel rationing begins in the U.S. to stem speculation and skyrocketing commodity prices.
Marshall Law is imposed in the U.S. to maintain order as the American public now realizes that these decisions and this chain of events will now result in the mass starvation of hundreds of millions and possibly billions of people around the globe.
WWIII is now thirty days old.
Sometimes no Peace,