There is money and there is material reality.
There is not enough oil to maintain current American standards of living and for China continue on its planned path of urbanizing another 300 million of its rural population in the next two decades.
There is more than just disagreement regarding currency valuation shaping up here and at least one and more likely both of these parties are in for some serious planning revisions.
“China won’t do anything drastic. The only reason why they are holding on to over-valued greenbacks is because they still have to at this point.“
What if say push comes to shove in Iran and or the DPRK? China and America aren’t likely to remain on speaking terms in either event.
If one or both of these scenarios appears inevitable to the Chinese and they may well believe that’s the case now, it’d be time to dump on the dollar and make preparations to move militarily on Taiwan.
Should China lose most of its energy imports, crude oil from the Persian Gulf, coal from Australia, their means to produce is going to slow to a crawl. They’ll no longer be able to supply the U.S. market with goods.
What happens to all the U.S. Treasuries the Chinese hold if regional conflict blossoms into a full blown global war? Regional bangs are what sets the avalanche into
motion, but the snow on the slopes builds pressure gradually.
All war is about resources.
Sometimes its cheaper to take them than to buy them. Sometimes there’s just not enough to go around. Increase supply or reduce the market.
It is called demand destruction.
If you are the primary oil importer globally and a tightening global oil market has a
stranglehold on your economy, in addition losing the current oil war that has the potential to become your fiscal undoing, some downsizing of the number 2 and 3 oil importers might be prudent.
Japan is an ally, basically a defenseless ally. Ride’em as far as they’ll take you
and eat’em. They already footed the bill for the first Gulf War.
Major conflict between the U.S. and China will leave the DPRK totally out on a limb and if they were to lash out with their small, intermediate range nuclear arsenal, it may well be pot shots at Japanese not South Korean cities.
They know that South Korea with U.S. backing will eventually win, so why trash your top choice occupiers. Lob off your retaliatory arsenal towards Japan once its use’em or lose’em time and quickly surrender to the South while there’s something left to
salvage. Why leave Japan unscathed as an American base to compete with the re-unified Korea for oil.
Facts are facts and the U.S. can’t win in Iraq militarily. They knew that in round one and decided not to invade then. The American Army isn’t large enough to secure Baghdad, said Colin Powell, Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman during the 1991 Gulf War.
Its now all or nothing in the Middle East. Take down Iran and Syria, regain full control of the flow of petro dollars from the region or pack it and go home. Nobody is packing it in.
Surge is the word.
Moving on Iran means China is going to suffer oil supply interruptions and the
U.S. is going to at least temporarily have its plate full.
Shots could be fired from either side of the Taiwan Straits and who’d know who
started it once it was on.
The Taiwanese still market a few goods around the globe and a re-unified China would help ease the economic pain for the mainland.
Give U.S. a sound reason to welch on the debt they hold. The timing is up to the U.S., we are the superpower. The snow has been falling for a long time and our CIA and raw American power, both military and economic have groomed the slope.
Everybody has had their “holiday bonanza”, its now geo-political show time.
Let’s Roll? The machine is already spinning.
WASHINGTON – As President Bush weighs new strategies for Iraq, the Army’s top general warned Thursday that his force will break without thousands more active duty troops and greater use of the reserves.
WASHINGTON – Attacks
on U.S. and Iraqi troops and Iraqi civilians jumped sharply in recent
months to the highest level since Iraq regained its sovereignty in June
2004, the Pentagon told Congress on Monday in the latest indication of that country’s spiraling violence.
Hillary Clinton said Monday she would not support a temporary surge in
the number of American troops in Iraq unless it was part of a broader long-term plan to stabilize the region.
BEIJING – North Korea defiantly proclaimed itself a nuclear power Monday and demanded an end to sanctions before it disarms, while the U.S. said it was running out of patience with the communist regime at the first six-nation arms talks since its nuclear test.
Urged by Sen. Edward Kennedy, the Massachusetts Democrat who is among the
most vocal critics of the Iraq war strategy, to “be a standup person” with the courage to push a war policy worthy of the sacrifices endured by troops and their families, Gates assured the committee that he had no intention of going to the Pentagon to be a bump on a log.
“I highly doubt North Korea will be doing anything without a say so from
China and China is unlikely to give that say so for a long time as they are busy industrializing and creating a country that can be a super power and not have to rely so heavily on the US and others for it’s economy. As for Iran, China can’t survive a war with the US anymore than the US could survive one with China.“
None of this reduces the U.S. motive for pre-emptive war. The U.S. is currently strong
militarily and economically, though the process of decline has begun.
Consider our demographics and the impact that they are having on savings and
investments. Superpower status dictates having both economic and military power, the ability and the will to leverage and project that power into every region of the globe.
America has invested heavily in its military, not alternative energy.
U.S. economic interests are vested in Kevlar.
No nation will purposely provoke war with the U.S. They may engage in actions the U.S. considers provocative, but they will be fundamentally defensive in nature unless all hope is lost and they lash out in retaliation after the initiation of an attack or it becomes known that an American attack is imminent.
That however does not preclude America from beginning a war with Iran, and or the DPRK, thus destabilizing China and downsizing the global economy.
Our military was designed to fight a two front global war.
As for open and total conventional warfare between the U.S. and China, ending with an invasion and unconditional surrender on the part of one or the other, that’s not likely.
There are however many other plausible scenarios that would achieve the stated objectives of the neocons in power within this government, insuring American military and economic pre-eminence well into this next century.
Try to imagine this century passing without major conflict between the number one and two oil importing nations. If the playing field was level, they’d win.
Today its tipped in favor of the U.S.
The key to surviving any avalanche is knowing when conditions are critical and if necessary initiating it yourself, rather than waiting for it to occur naturally.